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Sunday, January 16, 2011

Forrester Predicts Huge Tablet Growth – What That Means For Designers

In a recent report, Forrester predicts tablet sales will reach 195 million between 2010 and 2015 and most of these sold will be Apple products. Forrester also believes laptop sales will continue to grow from 26.4 million in 2010 to 38.9 million in 2015. Desktop PC sales will decline from 20.5 million in 2010 to 18.2 million in 2015.

When Users Consume
This increase use of tablets is already changing the way tablet users consume content. Reading content on mobile devices is causing a shift in when users consume material – prior to mobile consumption there was a bigger jump in users consuming material at their desks. Now, much to employer’s satisfaction, users are reading more articles and content on their own time, before and after the typical 9-5 office hours. In a recent study on the application Read it Later which allows users to save articles for later use, there are major spikes in iPhone usage: 6am - Early morning, breakfast, 9am - The morning commute, start of the work day, 5pm – 6pm - End of the work day and the commute home, 8pm – 10pm – Couch time, prime time, bed time. Similarly, for the iPad, usage spikes between 7 and 10 pm. Although additional research needs to be done to repeat these conclusions and support this hypothesis, the shift in user control over consumption and how they consume it (i.e. laying in bed reading articles or on the subway ride home), is an important factor to consider as we think of this changing landscape
 What Do We Do Next?
As designers, these numbers and predictions are pretty significant. If Forrester is correct, tablets usage will expand and cause a huge shift in behavior with touch screen devices. More research needs to be done on these devices and more standards need to be put in place.
One recent article I read from Smashing Magazine offers one solution to how to design for the myriad screen sizes of mobile devices – the solution is Responsive Web Design. “Responsive Web design is the approach that suggests that design and development should respond to the user’s behavior and environment based on screen size, platform and orientation. The practice consists of a mix of flexible grids and layouts, images and an intelligent use of CSS media queries”. When users switch back and forth between the devices, the design changes automatically to provide the best display of information. Aside from different screen sizes, both landscape and portrait views should be considered. Also, as we design, we should have flexible everything: fluid grids, fluid images and smart mark-up where needed.
Aside from Responsive Web Design, we also need to consider how these devices change they way users interact with the devices from a physical perspective. We are going to move away from the cursor and rely solely on direct manipulation of the devices. More consideration will need to be paid on ensuring touch targets accommodate the “fat finger” and more interactions will need to made standardized.
Older work from Dan Saffer, should also be considered and expanded upon. Some principles to keep in mind as we go forward trying to design for the here and now, as well as the future, is to keep his principles in mind. Good gestural interfaces should be:
  • Discoverable and have natural affordances
  • Trustworthy
  • Responsive
  • Appropriate
  • Meaningful
  • Smart & Clever
  • Playful & Pleasurable
  • Good
This change in consumption and behavior is exciting to me and should excite you too. It is not an understatement to say this IS BIG and will impact our interaction design landscape going forward. There is not a lot of research in this area since it is so new – which is one thing I have found as I delver deeper into Graduate level thesis work on this subject.
Now is the time to start thinking about these issues and continue to research and design to meet users mobile needs. My prediction is the next coming years are going to really distinguish the “men from the boys”, or to be PC, the “women from the girls”, and “designers from the dinosaurs”. In order to meet the needs of our clients going forward, we need to be aware of this change and understand the overall impact. Real change is here – be ready or stay home.

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